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Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour

Apolloni, A; Poletto, C; Ramasco, JJ; Jensen, P; Colizza, V
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 11, 3 (1-31) (2014)

Determining the pandemic potential of an emerging infectious disease and how it depends on the various epidemic and population aspects is critical for the preparation of an adequate response aimed at its control. The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issu e, we present an analytical modelling approach taking into account such interplay under general con ditions of mobility and interactions, in the simplifying assumption of two population classes.